kelly-paper-experiment/README.md

# kelly-paper-experiment

If you start with $100 balance, and you make a bet with a 70% chance of winning.  If you win, you get $80.  If you lose, you lose $80.  

Do you take the bet?  Even more interesting, if you could keep repeating this bet over and over again, always betting 80% of your balance, should you do it?  

It makes sense, right, the odds are in your favor!  

### The actual answer - if you want to go broke, then yes

This blew my mind, how counter-intuitive the answer to this question actually is.  

This program runs 16 simulations where you start with a balance of 100 currencies.  You make consecutive bets, always betting 80% of your total balance with a 70% chance of winning each bet.  It then reports the results after ONLY 200 bets.  The result is the percentage of your returns (your end balance divided by your starting balance).

### Output

Notice the e-n at the end... these are very small numbers, with only one simulation winning out with 24441% return based on the original balance.  

* 9.615689177895335e-11
* 0.037253150033722274
* 1.3190245785864657e-13
* 1.0684099086550371e-11
* 0.0041392388926358116
* 0.004139238892635805
* 5.1101714723898945e-05
* 7.788708234095249e-09
* 244.4179173712515
* 5.67796830265542e-06
* 0.0041392388926358185
* 1.1871221207278168e-12
* 0.0004599154325150897
* 1.0684099086550387e-11
* 7.788708234095218e-09
* 0.0041392388926358116

In other words, given enough time, we're all screwed.

### Reference Video

[![IMAGE ALT TEXT HERE](https://img.youtube.com/vi/91IOwS0gf3g/0.jpg)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91IOwS0gf3g)


### How to build this program yourself

1. Install go - https://golang.org/dl/
2. Clone - git clone https://deadbeef.codes/steven/kelly-paper-experiment.git
3. Build - cd kelly-paper-experiment && go build .
Initial commit 2021-05-20 21:49:33 +00:00			`# kelly-paper-experiment`

initial commit 2021-05-20 22:39:13 +00:00			`If you start with $100 balance, and you make a bet with a 70% chance of winning. If you win, you get $80. If you lose, you lose $80.`

			`Do you take the bet? Even more interesting, if you could keep repeating this bet over and over again, always betting 80% of your balance, should you do it?`

			`It makes sense, right, the odds are in your favor!`

			`### The actual answer - if you want to go broke, then yes`

			`This blew my mind, how counter-intuitive the answer to this question actually is.`

			`This program runs 16 simulations where you start with a balance of 100 currencies. You make consecutive bets, always betting 80% of your total balance with a 70% chance of winning each bet. It then reports the results after ONLY 200 bets. The result is the percentage of your returns (your end balance divided by your starting balance).`

include example output 2021-05-20 22:41:53 +00:00			`### Output`

wrong digits 2021-05-20 22:45:52 +00:00			`Notice the e-n at the end... these are very small numbers, with only one simulation winning out with 24441% return based on the original balance.`
include example output 2021-05-20 22:41:53 +00:00
fix formatting - markdown issue 2021-05-20 22:44:56 +00:00			`* 9.615689177895335e-11`
			`* 0.037253150033722274`
			`* 1.3190245785864657e-13`
			`* 1.0684099086550371e-11`
			`* 0.0041392388926358116`
			`* 0.004139238892635805`
			`* 5.1101714723898945e-05`
			`* 7.788708234095249e-09`
			`* 244.4179173712515`
			`* 5.67796830265542e-06`
			`* 0.0041392388926358185`
			`* 1.1871221207278168e-12`
			`* 0.0004599154325150897`
			`* 1.0684099086550387e-11`
			`* 7.788708234095218e-09`
			`* 0.0041392388926358116`
include example output 2021-05-20 22:41:53 +00:00
This is more appropriate in output section 2021-05-20 22:57:41 +00:00			`In other words, given enough time, we're all screwed.`

initial commit 2021-05-20 22:39:13 +00:00			`### Reference Video`

			`[![IMAGE ALT TEXT HERE](https://img.youtube.com/vi/91IOwS0gf3g/0.jpg)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91IOwS0gf3g)`


			`### How to build this program yourself`

			`1. Install go - https://golang.org/dl/`
			`2. Clone - git clone https://deadbeef.codes/steven/kelly-paper-experiment.git`
			`3. Build - cd kelly-paper-experiment && go build .`